¿Una medicina fiscal substitutiva?

BRUSELAS – Olvídese el precipicio fiscal. El verdadero problema es la montaña fiscal. Según el Fondo Monetario Internacional, el imperativo de reducir la proporción deuda pública/PIB a un nivel seguro es ingente para la mayoría de los países avanzados.

En Europa, muchos gobiernos, tras haberse internado por la vía de la consolidación fiscal, mientras sus economías seguían débiles, están ahora luchando contra las consecuencias en materia de crecimiento. El resultado es que la estabilización de la deuda parece una meta cada vez más esquiva.

En los Estados Unidos, la consolidación apenas si ha comenzado. Como ahora la economía privada esta fuerte, se puede beneficiar de unas condiciones de crecimiento más halagüeñas, pero la magnitud de la reducción del gasto necesaria –más de diez puntos porcentuales del PIB, según el FMI– es aterradora. En el Japón, nada se ha hecho hasta ahora y la magnitud del esfuerzo requerido desafía la imaginación.

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