La quimera turca

WASHINGTON – Las dramáticas revueltas en Túnez, Egipto y Libia han funcionado como catalizador de un despertar árabe más generalizado que ha sacudido los fundamentos del orden político del Medio Oriente que existía desde finales de los años setenta. Si bien es muy temprano para pronosticar los resultados finales, ya se vislumbran algunas consecuencias regionales importantes.

En primer lugar, las revueltas son una espada de dos filos para Irán. El régimen iraní podría beneficiarse de la expulsión o el debilitamiento de los líderes y regímenes pro occidentales de Egipto, Jordania y Arabia Saudita, pero el aliento inicial que dio Irán a los levantamientos democráticos en Túnez y Egipto tuvo consecuencias inesperadas. Los funcionarios iraníes tuvieron que cambiar el tono cuando su propio pueblo comenzó a pedir los mismos derechos democráticos, lo que sugiere que el país podría enfrentarse a presiones más fuertes en favor de la democracia y el cambio político a mediano y largo plazo.

En segundo lugar, los desórdenes amenazan con aislar más a Israel. Con la partida de Mubarak, Israel ha perdido a su socio regional más importante. En efecto, dado el grave deterioro de las relaciones del país con Turquía, la salida de Mubarak lo priva de sus dos aliados más claros en la región. Aunque el régimen militar interino de Egipto ha prometido que respetará el acuerdo de paz de 1979, un gobierno nuevo, más democrático, podría adoptar otra posición.

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