Турецкая мечта

ВАШИНГТОН. Драматичные восстания в Тунисе, Египте и Ливии выступили в роли катализатора более широкого арабского пробуждения, фундаментальным образом потрясшего политическое устройство Ближнего Востока, которое сохранялось с конца 1970-х гг. Хотя ещё слишком рано предсказывать конечные результаты, несколько важных региональных выводов уже начинают вырисовываться.

Во-первых, для Ирана восстания являются палкой о двух концах. Иранский режим может выиграть от свержения или ослабления прозападных арабских лидеров и режимов в Египте, Иордании и Саудовской Аравии, но первоначальная поддержка Ираном демократических восстаний в Тунисе и Египте имеет и побочный результат. Иранским властям пришлось быстро менять политику, как только их собственное население начало требовать аналогичных демократических прав, из чего можно предположить, что Иран может столкнуться с более сильными требованиями установления демократии и политических изменений в средне- или долгосрочной перспективе.

Во-вторых, эти восстания угрожают усилением изоляции Израиля. С уходом Мубарака Израиль потерял своего важнейшего регионального партнёра. Более того, учитывая серьёзное ухудшение отношений Израиля с Турцией, уход Мубарака лишил его двух наиболее явных союзников в регионе. В то время как промежуточный военный режим Египта обязался придерживаться мирного соглашения 1979 г., новое, более демократичное правительство может принять и другой подход.

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