Die türkische Schimäre

WASHINGTON – Die dramatischen Revolten in Tunesien, Ägypten und Libyen dienten als Auslöser für ein umfassendes arabisches Erwachen, das die seit den späten 1970er Jahren bestehende politische Ordnung des Nahen Ostens fundamental erschüttert hat. Noch ist es zu früh, das Endergebnis dieses Prozesses vorherzusagen, aber einige wichtige regionale Auswirkungen werden bereits sichtbar.

Zunächst einmal sind die Revolten ein zweischneidiges Schwert für den Iran. Das iranische Regime mag zwar vom Sturz oder von der Schwächung pro-westlicher arabischer Führer und Regierungen in Ägypten, Jordanien und Saudi-Arabien profitieren. Der Zuspruch aber, den die demokratischen Aufstände in Tunesien und Ägypten anfänglich vom Iran erhielten, hatte einen Pferdefuß. Sobald die iranische Bevölkerung selbst diese demokratischen Rechte einforderte, mussten die iranischen Beamten schnell einen Rückzug machen, um die Möglichkeit eines zukünftig stärkeren Drucks in Richtung Demokratie und politischer Veränderung zu verhindern.

Die zweite Auswirkung ist, dass Israel durch die Aufstände weiter in Isolation geraten könnte. Mit Mubarak hat Israel seinen wichtigsten regionalen Partner verloren. Berücksichtigt man den massiven Verfall der israelischen Beziehungen zur Türkei, wurde Israel mit Mubaraks Abschied seiner beiden besten Verbündeten in der Region beraubt. Das militärische Übergangsregime Ägyptens hat zwar zugesichert, sich an das Friedensabkommen von 1979 zu halten, aber eine neue demokratischere Regierung könnte eine andere Haltung einnehmen.

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