债券基准之争

发自东京——一些知名的机构债券投资者正将其焦点从传统的基准指数(通过市场资本总值来衡量各国债务问题)转移到GDP加权指数。太平洋投资管理公司(世界最大的固定收益投资公司之一)和挪威政府养老基金(最大的主权财富基金之一)最近都在朝这个方向行动。但存在这样的风险——即有一些投资者会忽略一个基准指数存在的目的。

基准指数的存在是用来反映中位投资者观点的。对很多投资者来说——包括那些能意识到自己并不够老练以及尚未意识到这一点的——与基准保持一致是种明智的指导方针。而这也是有效市场假说(efficient markets hypothesis)的一种体现。

无可否认,持有效市场假说理论者通常会太过迅速地去否定击败基准的可能性。在2003至2007年间由信贷催生的热潮中,判定高外债国家(尤其是在欧洲)缺乏支付足够高的回报来补偿风险并不是这么难的事情。或者换另一种(更艰难的)说法,在严重跌价之后,同样这几个国家大幅打折的国债在2012年初应该相当适合买入了。

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