Paul Lachine

La traición de los economistas

LONDRES – Todos los acontecimientos que definen una época son el resultado de coyunturas -la correlación de acontecimientos normalmente inconexos que sacuden a la humanidad y la sacan de la rutina-. Estas coyunturas crean lo que el autor Nassim Nicholas Taleb llama ampquot;Cisnes Negrosampquot; -acontecimientos impredecibles con un amplio impacto-. Una pequeña cantidad de Cisnes Negros, cree Taleb, ampquot;explican casi todo lo que sucede en nuestro mundoampquot;.

La prosperidad de la primera era de la globalización antes de 1914, por ejemplo, resultó de una constelación exitosa de acontecimientos: la caída de los costos del transporte y las comunicaciones, los avances tecnológicos de la segunda revolución industrial, el estado pacífico de las relaciones internacionales y la exitosa gestión por parte de Gran Bretaña del patrón oro. Por el contrario, en los años entre guerras, la política internacional ponzoñosa se combinó con los desequilibrios económicos globales para crear la Gran Depresión y preparar la escena para la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

Ahora consideremos las recientes innovaciones financieras. A horcajadas de la nueva tecnología informática y de telecomunicaciones, se creó un mercado gigantesco de instrumentos derivados. Las obligaciones de deuda colateralizada (CDOs, tal su sigla en inglés), principalmente vinculadas a hipotecas, convirtieron a una nueva población de aspirantes a propietarios en supuestos merecedores de crédito, permitiéndoles a los bancos originadores vender deuda ampquot;de alto riesgoampquot; a otros inversores.

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