Paul Lachine

Velezrada ekonomů

LONDÝN – Všechny události určující svou dobu jsou výslednicí náhod – jde o korelaci jinak nesouvisejících událostí vytrhující lidstvo ze zaběhlých stereotypů. Takové náhody vytvářejí cosi, čemu spisovatel Nassim Nicholas Taleb říká „černé labutě“ – nepředvídatelné události s obrovskými dopady. Nevysoký počet černých labutí podle Talebova přesvědčení „vysvětluje téměř všechno v našem světě“.

Prosperita první éry globalizace před rokem 1914 například vyplynula z příznivé konstelace dění: klesajících přepravních a komunikačních nákladů, technických průlomů druhé průmyslové revoluce, poklidného stavu mezinárodních vztahů a úspěšné správy zlatého standardu Velkou Británií. Naproti tomu v meziválečných letech se zhoubná mezinárodní politika spojila s globálními ekonomickými nevyváženostmi, zplodila Velkou hospodářskou krizi a nachystala scénu pro druhou světovou válku.

Pohlédněme teď na finanční inovace poslední doby. Na podkladu nové výpočetní a telekomunikační techniky bylo vystavěno obří tržiště pro odvozené instrumenty. Kolateralizované dluhové obligace (CDO, vázané hlavně na hypotéky) zrodily novou populaci údajně bonitních zájemců o vlastní bydlení tím, že bankám, které jim poskytly úvěry, umožnily „podřadný“ dluh prodat dalším investorům.

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