Skip to main content

301ba20046f86fa80bd34304_pa3137c.jpg Paul Lachine

经济学家的背叛

伦敦——所有历史性的事件都来源于一些事情的共同作用——往往一些不相关的事情会的联合作用导致一些不可控制的结果。在纳西姆·塔勒布的书中,将这些共同的事件称为“黑天鹅”—不可预知的事件而导致的巨大影响。虽然只是一小群黑天鹅,塔勒布认为,“几乎可以解释我们世界上的一切事情。“

例如,在1914年之前的 第一次全球化的兴起就来源于一连串成功事件的组合:交通通讯费用的下降,第二次工业革命在技术上的突破创新,太平洋国家之间的相互交流以及大英帝国鼎盛时期成功的管理方法。与此对应的是,全球经济的不平衡伴随着多年的国际政治纠纷争端导致的战争,结果就是大萧条时代的产生以及随后爆发的第二次世界大战。

现在我们来看看近期的金融创新。随着新式电脑以及通讯技术的发展,新的衍生工具开始有了巨大的市场。债务抵押债券 CDO(CDO通常和住房贷款联系在一起)使得一大批人拥有自己的住房的愿望得以实现,于是,银行又开始将“次级房贷”又转售给了其他投资者。

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Subscribe

Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine.

https://prosyn.org/Zn3lQKz/zh;
  1. drew47_Drew AngererGetty Images_trumpgiulianasmiling Drew Angerer/Getty Images

    Will Trump Be Removed from Office?

    Elizabeth Drew

    Assuming the US House of Representatives votes to impeach President Donald Trump, the fact remains that there are far fewer votes in the Senate than will be needed to convict him and remove him from office. But the willingness of Congress – including the Senate – to continue tolerating his dangerous conduct is now truly in question.

    0
  2. rudd9_Darrian TraynorGetty Images_climateprotestburningaustralia Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

    Unsustainable Australia

    Kevin Rudd

    Before the current conservative government came to power in 2013, Australia was well-positioned to make the necessary transition to a low-carbon economy. But now, the country is heading in reverse, and has already fallen behind most developed countries, and even China, on reducing emissions and building resilience against climate change.

    1

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated Cookie policy, Privacy policy and Terms & Conditions