Il piano di Li Keqiang

SHANGHAI – Parlano tutti del rallentamento economico della Cina. Lo scorso anno, la crescita del Pil cinese ha toccato i livelli più bassi degli ultimi tredici anni, e la ripresa appare ancora lontana. Come sembra riconoscere il premier Li Keqiang, questo trend potrebbe effettivamente essere benefico, incoraggiando le riforme strutturali di cui la Cina necessita per raggiungere l’obiettivo di lungo termine, ossia la crescita più stabile ed equilibrata del Pil.

Le recenti valutazioni hanno offerto un’immagine negativa della seconda potenza del mondo. Nel suo ultimo report Global Economic Prospects, la Banca mondiale ha tagliato le previsioni economiche del 2013 per la Cina dall’8,4% al 7,7%. Inoltre, i dati recentemente comunicati dalla banca centrale indicano che le banche cinesi hanno aumentato l’attività creditizia di appena 667 miliardi di yuan (83 miliardi di euro) a maggio – una flessione pari all’incirca a 125 miliardi di yuan nello stesso periodo dello scorso anno.

Incrementare semplicemente l’attività creditizia non migliorerebbe la situazione. Dato che i finanziamenti in essere ammontano già a quasi il doppio del Pil cinese – il risultato dei massicci stimoli effettuati dal Paese dal 2008 – i nuovi prestiti vengono ampiamente utilizzati per estinguere i vecchi debiti, piuttosto che per investire nell’economia reale. Il timore maggiore è la mancata crescita del saldo dei finanziamenti in essere.

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