李克强的底线

上海——中国的经济增长放缓已经成为所有人的话题。去年,中国GDP增长创13年来的新低,至今尚未出现任何好转迹象。但李克强总理似乎认为这一趋势实际对经济发展有利,因为它能刺激中国推进结构改革,实现确保GDP平衡稳定增长的长远目标。

近来对世界第二大经济体的评估充满了悲观情绪。世行在最新一期《全球经济展望》报告中将2013年中国的经济增长预测从8.4%调降至7.7%。此外,最新公布的央行数据显示中国各银行五月信贷总额仅增加了6660亿人民币(约合1080亿美元)——较之去年同期出现了约1350亿人民币的降幅。

但单纯提高信贷额度恐怕无济于事。鉴于2008年来的大规模刺激政策已经使中国未偿还贷款接近GDP的两倍,新增贷款主要并未进入实体经济,而是用于偿还旧账。因此,未偿还贷款余额并未上升恐怕更值得关注。

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