Spor o cílový kurs

CAMBRIDGE: Cílové kursy se staly novým módním pojmem v mezinárodních politických debatách. Francouzi volají po novém mezinárodním měnovém systému, který by projednou skoncoval s dnešními, zdánlivě neškodnými a přehlíženými měnovými výkyvy. Němci se k této myšlence připojili a Japonci, ať už to míní jakkoliv, vyjádřili velký zájem. Měli bychom se tedy této myšlenky chytit a uvěřit, že cílové kursy, které budou diskutovány na nadcházejícím kolínském summitu, budou schopny nabídnout detailně propracovaný plán na zavedení euro-dolarového směnného kursu, pohybujícího se jen v úzkém koridoru a že japonský jen tak nakonec zastaví svůj divoký tanec?

Není ale žádná šance, že by se Amerika někdy připojila k mechanismu, který by omezoval její flexibilitu a vkládal zodpovědnost za hospodářské kroky USA do rukou finančně nezkušených a v kategoriích centrálně plánovaného hospodářství stále smýšlejících socialistických vlád. Stejně vzdálená je i možnost, že USA budou s Japonskem souhlasit v otázce úzkých rozpětí směnných kursů; Japonci nejsou schopni uřídit vlastní hospodářství, tak proč by se měla Amerika vázat na jejich potíže?

Vnějším důvodem k vytvoření cílových kursů je to, že kdyby nebylo velkých výkyvů mezi dolarem a jenem, nedošlo by ani k asijské měnové krizi. Pravdou totiž je, že kurs dolaru a jenu se za posledních 5 let zásadně změnil; jen vzrostl na 80 jenů za 1 americký dolar a vydal se na zničující cestu ke kursu 140 jenů za dolar.

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