中国国家资产负债表到底有没有风险?

北京 – 近期三份有关中国国家资负债表的研究报告引发人们的高度关注。三份报告(德意志银行、中行、社科院)从不同的角度测算了国家资产负债,但三者所得出的结论却分歧较大。我们到底该如何看待中国庞大的“正净资产”,又该如何评估中国的债务风险?

回顾全球债务危机的历史,在过去200多年时间里,全球至少发生了250次以上的主权债务违约,68次国内债务违约,债务违约几乎每隔几年或十几年就集中爆发一次。历史上,债务违约往往不是孤立事件,总是与经常项目逆差、本币汇率高估、公共部门债务高企、财政亏空、外汇储备不足等因素相互交织,共同触发危机。从墨西哥金融危机(1994)、亚洲金融危机(1997)、到后来的俄罗斯(1998)、巴西金融危机(1999),再到2008年美国次贷危机及仍在进行中的欧洲主权债务危机。

改革开放至今,中国也出现过四次较大规模的财政赤字和政府债务问题。1978年后的债务问题,主要是中央财政赤字;1988年后的债务问题,主要是企业间“三角债”;1998年后的债务问题,主要是国企经营问题造成的金融机构坏账;2008年后中国地方债风险、企业债务风险也在不断累积。

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