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什么在羁绊欧洲?

匹兹堡—法国总统奥朗德最近在访问希腊时宣称欧洲的熊势已经结束,并敦促法国公司赴希腊投资。这可不是好建议。法国生产成本很高,但希腊成本更高。尽管希腊(还有意大利和西班牙)的真实GDP自2007年以来降了不少,但调整远未结束。

事实上,放眼欧洲,你很难找到对奥朗德观点的广泛认同。意大利最近的选举前,受欧洲央行担保欧元区成员国主权债务、扩大其资产负债表并降低利率的政策的刺激,金融市场释放出乐观信号。债券持有人因利率下降而获益。但南欧重债国的失业仍在上升,产出继续滞后于德国和其他北欧国家。

滞后的原因不仅仅是需求低和债务高。德国和其他南欧重债国的单位劳动力成本——经生产率调整的真实工资——之间存在巨大差异。危机开始时,希腊生产成本比德国高约三成,因此希腊出口极少而进口极多。其他重债国的生产成本也比德国高20—25%。

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