Paul Lachine

Las dificultades de Estados Unidos

NUEVA YORK - Los indicadores macroeconómicos de Estados Unidos han sido mejores de lo esperado en los últimos meses. La creación de empleo se ha acelerado. Los indicadores de los sectores de manufactura y servicios han mejorado de forma moderada. Incluso la industria de la vivienda ha mostrado algunas señales de vida. Y el crecimiento del consumo ha sido relativamente resistente.

Sin embargo, a pesar de los datos favorables, el crecimiento económico de EE.UU. seguirá débil y estando por debajo de la tendencia a lo largo de 2012. ¿Por qué no son creíbles las buenas noticias económicas recientes?

En primer lugar, los consumidores estadounidenses siguen sufriendo problemas de ingresos y estando limitados por las deudas. La renta disponible ha crecido modestamente -a pesar de un estancamiento de los salarios reales- principalmente como resultado de los recortes de impuestos y las transferencias. Esto no es sostenible: tarde o temprano será necesario reducir los pagos de transferencias y elevar los impuestos para reducir el déficit fiscal. Los datos recientes de consumo ya se están debilitando en relación con un par de meses atrás, marcados por unas ventas navideñas minoristas apenas pasables.

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