Paul Lachine

Затруднительное положение Америки

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. В течение последних нескольких месяцев макроэкономические показатели США были лучше, чем ожидалось. Создание рабочих мест ускорилось. Показатели производства и услуг умеренно улучшились. Даже жилищное строительство показало некоторые признаки оживления. А рост потребления был относительно устойчивым.

Но, несмотря на благоприятные показатели, экономический рост в США будет оставаться слабым и ниже тренда на протяжении 2012 года. Почему не следует верить всем последним хорошим экономическим новостям?

Во-первых, доходы американских потребителей, как и их благосостояние, остаются неустойчивыми, а также под давлением долгов. Располагаемый доход скромно растет ‑ несмотря на стагнацию реальных зарплат ‑ в основном в результате снижения налогов и трансфертных платежей. Это не может быть устойчивым: в конце концов, трансфертные платежи должны быть сокращены, а налоги увеличены, чтобы сократить бюджетный дефицит. Последние данные о потреблении уже ослабли по отношению к нескольким месяцам назад, которые были отмечены праздничными розничными распродажами, которые были просто временными.

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