Paul Lachine

2012年美国经济为何不看好

纽约——近几月来,美国宏观经济指标好于预期。就业数据掉头向上,制造业和服务业指标适度改善,就连房地产业也现出几许生机,唯有消费增长还相当疲软。

但是,尽管数据乐观,整个2012年,美国经济增长仍将乏力,低于趋势水平。为什么近期的经济好消息不足凭信?

第一,美国消费者仍然苦于收入吃紧、财富缩水和债务负担。实际工资增长停滞,但主要受减税和转移支付影响,可支配收入仍实现了微弱增长。这是不可持续的:迟早,政府将不得不收缩转移支付并增加税收以削减财政赤字。相对于数月之前,近期的消费数据已经有所减弱,节日零售差强人意。

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