平静前的风暴

 牛津-各国央行可以停止对通货膨胀的担忧了,因为价格紧缩在近期更有可能发生。但是,至少在银行系统进行了资本结构调整以及工业国家的利率大幅降低的情况下,暂时的通货紧缩对于央行来讲根本就不需要忌惮。

就在最近的九、十月份,美联储和欧洲中央银行都将通货膨胀的风险大致等同于增长的风险,两者都不愿大幅降低利率。实际上,金融市场可能已经将美联储对美国通货膨胀的观点作为其他中央银行对通货膨胀观点的典型代表了,这一观点被欧洲中央银行十月二日令人吃惊的维持利率不变的决定所强化。

在十月份,美国已经处在过去二十年通货膨胀最关键的转折点之上。当然,众所周之,要想预测通货膨胀是异常困难的。世界经济(例如,贸易和金融全球化)和单个经济体(例如工会实力的下降)内已经发生了巨大的结构变化。货币政策本身也变得更为关注通货膨胀了。

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