La tormenta después de la calma

PARÍS -- ¿Podría volver a suceder la crisis financiera del período 2007-2008? Desde que estalló la crisis, no han faltado las ocasiones –en forma de conclusiones y decisiones inadecuadas por parte de las autoridades– para que aumentara nuestra preocupación ante esa perspectiva.

Durante las tres cumbres del G-20 celebradas desde el comienzo de la crisis, los dirigentes mundiales han acordado endurecer ligeramente la reglamentación financiera, pero sólo para los bancos, con lo que han dejado a los demás participantes en el mercado funcionar sin restricciones ni fiscalización. Como ocurría antes de la crisis, nadie está vigilando el casi ilimitado mercado “virtual” de derivados, en el que el dinero se mueve con libertad sin normas oficiales ni contacto con la economía real.

Y los grandes participantes tienen abundante dinero en efectivo con el que especular, en particular dada la decisión de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos de inundar el mundo con un mar de liquidez. El resultado no ha sido la inversión en activos productivos que impulsaran el empleo en los EE.UU., como deseaba la Reserva Federal, sino un aumento de los precios mundiales de los productos básicos y una burbuja en aumento en los mercados inmobiliarios de las más importantes economías en ascenso.

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