Paul Lachine

La primavera de los zombies

Nueva York – A medida que la primavera llega a los Estados Unidos, los optimistas comienzan a ver ampquot;brotes de hojas nuevasampquot; de recuperación de la crisis financiera y la recesión. El mundo ha cambiado mucho desde la primavera pasada, cuando la administración Bush decía una vez más que veía ampquot;luz al final del túnelampquot;. Las metáforas y los gobiernos han cambiado, pero -al parecer- el optimismo sigue inmutable.

La buena noticia es que puede que estemos al final de la caída en picado. El ritmo de la desaceleración económica se ha reducido. Puede que estemos ya cerca de tocar fondo, quizás para fines de año, pero eso no significa que la economía global esté en condiciones de recuperarse sólidamente en el futuro inmediato. Tocar fondo no es razón para abandonar las drásticas medidas adoptadas para resucitarla.

Esta recesión es compleja: una crisis económica combinada con una crisis financiera. Antes de ella, los consumidores estadounidenses, cargados de deudas, eran el motor del crecimiento global. Ese modelo se ha roto y no será sustituido muy pronto: incluso si los bancos estadounidenses estuvieran en buena forma, la riqueza de los hogares de este país se ha visto devastada, pues los estadounidenses se endeudaron y consumieron en el supuesto de que los precios de las viviendas no dejarían de aumentar.

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