Paul Lachine

Jaro oživlých mrtvol

NEW YORK – V době, kdy do Spojených států přichází jaro, spatřují optimisté „zelené výhonky“ zotavování z finanční krize a recese. Oproti loňskému jaru, kdy Bushova administrativa opět tvrdila, že vidí „světlo na konci tunelu“, je svět diametrálně jiný. Metafory a administrativy se změnily, avšak zdá se, že optimismus nikoliv.

Dobrou zprávou je, že jsme možná na konci volného pádu. Tempo hospodářského poklesu se zpomalilo. Dno už může být blízko – snad ho dosáhneme do konce roku. To však ještě neznamená, že má globální ekonomika v brzké době nakročeno k robustnímu zotavení. Dosažení dna není důvodem k ústupu od razantních opatření přijatých s cílem oživit globální ekonomiku.

Tento pokles je komplexní: hospodářská krize se zkombinovala s krizí finanční. Před jejich nástupem byli zadlužení američtí spotřebitelé motorem globálního růstu. Tento model se rozpadl a hned tak nebude nahrazen. I kdyby totiž byly americké banky zdravé, bohatství domácností bylo zničeno a Američané si půjčovali a spotřebovávali na základě předpokladu, že ceny nemovitostí budou růst věčně.

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