Paul Lachine

僵尸的春天

纽约——随着美国春回大地,乐观的人看到了从金融危机和经济萧条中复苏的“绿芽”。与去年春季布什政府又一次声称看到了“隧道尽头的光明”时相比,世界局势已发生了巨大变化。现在,用作比喻的东西和政府都不一样了,但乐观的想法似乎仍未改变。

好消息是,我们可能已经到了自由落体的尽头。经济下滑的速度已经减缓,低谷可能不远了——或许年底就是。但这并不意味着全球经济肯定会在不远的将来强力回弹。经济探底不是放弃用来振兴全球经济的强有力措施的理由。

这段时期的低迷是复杂的:经济危机与金融危机联袂来袭。危机发生之前,债台高筑的美国消费者是全球增长的发动机。这个模式已经崩溃,而且短期内无可替代。因为,即便假设美国的银行是健康的,但家庭财富也已经损失殆尽,而美国人的借贷和消费是建立在房价会永远上涨的基础之上的。

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