全球滞胀的幽灵

纽约-不断加剧的全球通货膨胀会导致全球经济急剧放缓吗?或者更糟,它会引起不断加剧的通货膨胀和经济负增长的致命结合-滞胀吗?

在许多发达经济体和新兴市场国家,通货膨胀已经在不断地加剧,而且在许多发达经济体(美国,英国,西班牙,爱尔兰,意大利,葡萄牙和日本)已经有迹象表明可能会发生经济紧缩。在新兴市场,通货膨胀-到目前为止-是和经济增长,有时候甚至是和经济过热联系在一起的。但是美国和其他发达经济体的经济紧缩可能导致新兴市场的增长挂钩-而不是脱钩-因为美国经济紧缩减缓了增长,并且不断加剧的通货膨胀迫使货币当局收紧货币和信贷政策。因而新兴市场可能面对“停滞性通膨”-不断加剧的通货膨胀和增长急剧放缓结合在一起。

滞胀的发生需要具备这样的条件:负向供应冲击在提高价格的同时降低了产量。在过去35年中,滞胀冲击导致了三次全球性的经济衰退: 当石油价格在赎罪日战争以及OPEC禁运后暴涨时发生的1973-1975年经济衰退;在伊朗革命之后发生的1979-1980年经济衰退;以及在伊拉克入侵科威特之后发生的1990-91年经济衰退。即使是2001年发生的经济衰退-主要是由高科技产品泡沫破灭引起的-在反对以色列的第二次巴勒斯坦起义开始之后,也伴随着油价的翻番。

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