Las tasas de interés seguirán en alza en EE. UU.

CAMBRIDGE – Hace seis meses escribí que las tasas de interés de largo plazo aumentarían en Estados Unidos, produciendo una caída tal en los precios de los bonos que un inversor con bonos del tesoro a diez años perdería más por ella que lo que ganaría por la diferencia entre la tasa de interés del bono y las tasas en fondos de dinero a corto plazo o en depósitos bancarios.

Ya se comprobó que ese aviso fue correcto. Las tasas de interés para los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años han aumentado casi un punto porcentual completo desde febrero, hasta 2,72 %, lo que implica una pérdida de casi el 10 % sobre el precio del bono.

Pero, ¿qué nos deparará el futuro? El reciente aumento de las tasas de interés de largo plazo es solo el principio de un incremento que castigará a los inversores que buscan rendimientos adicionales apostando a los bonos de largo plazo. Dada la tasa actual de inflación esperada, del 2 %, la tasa real sobre los bonos a 10 años aún es menor al 1 %. La experiencia implica que la tasa real aumentará hasta por lo menos el 2 %, para impulsar la tasa de interés nominal total a más del 4 %, incluso si la inflación esperada se mantiene solo en el 2 %.

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