US-Zinssätze werden weiter steigen

CAMBRIDGE – Vor sechs Monaten habe ich geschrieben, dass die langfristigen Zinssätze in den Vereinigten Staaten steigen würden, wodurch die Anleihekurse so stark fallen würden, dass ein Anleger im Besitz von zehnjährigen Schatzanweisungen mehr durch den Wertverfall der Schatzanweisung verlöre, als er durch die Differenz zwischen dem Zinssatz der Anleihe und den Zinssätzen für Fonds mit kurzfristigem Geld oder Bankguthaben verdienen würde.

Diese Warnung hat sich bereits als korrekt erwiesen. Der Zinssatz für zehnjährige Schatzanweisungen ist seit Februar um fast einen ganzen Prozentpunkt auf 2,72 % gestiegen, was einen Verlust von fast 10 % beim Anleihekurs nahelegt.

Doch wie sieht die Zukunft aus? Der jüngste Anstieg der langfristigen Zinssätze ist erst der Anfang eines Ansteigens, das Anleger bestrafen wird, die sich zusätzliche Gewinne von langfristigen Anleihen versprechen. Angesichts der erwarteten Inflationsrate von 2 %, beträgt der Realzins für zehnjährige Schatzanweisungen immer noch weniger als 1 %. Aufgrund früherer Erfahrungswerte ist anzunehmen, dass der Realzins auf mindestens 2 % ansteigen wird, was den Nominalzins insgesamt auf über 4 % anheben würde, selbst wenn die erwartete Inflation bei nur 2 % bleibt.

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