Ахиллесова пята экономического роста Китая

Взрывной экономический рост Китая нависает над остальным миром, радикально изменяя глобальные производственные цепочки и бросая вызов мировой торговой системе. Если нынешние темпы промышленного роста Китая сохранятся в течение следующих двух десятилетий, глобальная система столкнется с серьезными проблемами. Действительно, вопрос заключается не столько в том, повлияют ли на глобальную систему дисбалансы, вызванные экономическим ростом Китая, а в том, насколько серьезными они окажутся.

Основной интерес и озабоченность в последние несколько лет вызывали растущий фискальный дефицит и дефицит текущего платежного баланса Америки и ее попытки заставить Китай ввести более свободный курс юаня по отношению к доллару. Китай же, наоборот, связывает свой экономический рост со стабильной валютой и может не захотеть ввести более гибкий валютный режим даже после 2.1% ревальвации в июле до решения структурных проблем, для которого очень сложно установить конкретные сроки.

Фактически, в то время как экономика Китая процветала в течение последнего десятилетия, структурные преобразования в его внутренних секторах замедлялись, главным образом из-за политических ограничений. Банковская система остается нездоровой и хрупкой; исчезают рынки капитала

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