Die Achillesferse des chinesischen Wachstums

Chinas explosionsartiges Wirtschaftswachstum ist abhängig vom Rest der Welt. Es verändert die globalen Produktionsketten grundlegend und stellt eine Herausforderung für das weltweite Handelssystem dar. Wenn China diese Wachstumsdynamik über die nächsten zwei Jahrzehnte beibehält, werden auf das globale System enorme Herausforderungen zukommen. Die Frage ist dabei nicht so sehr, ob das System die von China verursachten Ungleichgewichte aushält, sondern wie stark diese Ungleichgewichte sein werden.

In den letzten Jahren galt die größte Sorge vor allem Amerikas immensen Leistungsbilanz- und Haushaltsdefiziten, sowie seinen Bestrebungen, China dazu zu bringen, den Wechselkurs des Renminbi (Yuan) nicht mehr so eng an den Dollar zu binden. Im Gegensatz dazu glaubt China sein Wachstum an eine stabile Währung gebunden. Selbst nach der Währungsaufwertung um 2,1 % im Juli möchte man kein freies Wechselkursregime einführen, bis man die Strukturprobleme, für deren Behebung ein genauer Zeitplan äußerst schwierig zu erstellen ist, einigermaßen in den Griff bekommen hat.

Tatsächlich haben sich die Strukturanpassungen in China trotz des wirtschaftlichen Booms in den letzten zehn Jahren vor allem aufgrund politischer Beschränkungen verzögert. Der Bankensektor kränkelt weiter und bleibt anfällig und die Kapitalmärkte sterben.

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