中国增长的弱点

中国爆炸式的经济增长无疑依赖了世界经济。但它急剧改变了全球生产链并且挑战全球贸易体系。如果中国在以后二十年中继续维持其增长势头,全球体系将面临巨大挑战。实际上,真正的问题并不在于全球体系是否会忍受中国带来的不平衡,而在于评估这种不平衡有多么严重。

过去几年里,世界对于美国巨大的经常项目赤字和财政赤字,以及试图让中国允许人民币更为自由地针对美元浮动而忧心忡忡。相比之下,中国认为其经济增长需要稳定的货币,并且即使在今年七月人民币上浮2.1%,也并不想要引入更为灵活的汇率体系,而是等候结构性问题得以缓解。中国想要为此制定一个时间表极为困难。

实际上,尽管在过去十年中中国经济实现了腾飞,但是由于政治上的约束,其国内部门的结构性调整却放慢了。银行体系仍然不够健康而且弱不禁风;资本市场则病入膏肓。

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