Il deficit delle competenze

BRUXELLES – A due anni dall’esaurimento nervoso venuto all’economia mondiale per il collasso della Lehman Brothers, i mercati finanziari globali restano instabili, mentre la ripresa iniziata con vigore nel 2009 sembra essere giunta a una fase di stallo.

Come da previsioni, il rallentamento ha portato a nuove richieste di stimoli fiscali e monetari. L’argomento a favore sembra semplice: solo una massiccia dose di spese governative e un forte sostegno al sistema finanziario da parte delle banche centrali ha evitato di scivolare in una seconda Grande Depressione; quindi anche ora è necessaria un’altra dose della stessa medicina per evitare di ricadere nella recessione.

Questo argomento sembra particolarmente convincente negli Stati Uniti, che durante il lungo periodo di boom economico erano abituati a tassi di disoccupazione del 5% e a una crescita costante dei consumi. Ma se si valutano le prospettive della congiuntura USA, non si possono comparare i bassi tassi di crescita trimestrali (i dati per aprile-giugno sono particolarmente deludenti) e l’attuale tasso di disoccupazione che si avvicina al 10% con i favolosi tempi d’oro. Bisogna essere lungimiranti, perché gli USA stanno affrontando una sfida di riforme strutturali che sarà accompagnata da un alto tasso di disoccupazione.

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