Das Qualifizierungsdefizit

BRÜSSEL: Auch zwei Jahre nach dem Nervenzusammenbruch der Weltwirtschaft im Gefolge des Kollaps von Lehman Brothers ist an den internationalen Finanzmärkten keine Ruhe eingekehrt, und die Konjunkturerholung, die 2009 so kraftvoll begann, scheint abzureißen.

Wie zu erwarten, hat die Konjunkturabkühlung zu Rufen nach weiteren steuer- und geldpolitischen Konjunkturimpulsen geführt. Das Argument dafür scheint einfach: Nur enorme staatliche Ausgaben und eine massive Unterstützung durch die Notenbanken haben ein Abgleiten in eine zweite Große Depression vermieden; daher sei jetzt eine weitere Dosis derselben Medizin nötig, um einen Rückfall in die Rezession zu verhindern.

In den USA, die sich während der langen Boomjahre an Arbeitslosenquoten von 5% und ein stetiges Konsumwachstum gewöhnt haben, scheint dieses Argument besonders viel Gewicht zu haben. Doch wenn man die Aussichten der US-Konjunktur einschätzt, sollte man niedrige Wachstumsraten (die Daten für April-Juni sind besonders enttäuschend) und die gegenwärtige Arbeitslosenquote von fast 10% nicht mit den Idealbedingungen aus der Zeit des Blasenaufbaus vergleichen. Eine langfristigere Sicht ist erforderlich, denn die USA stehen vor der Herausforderung struktureller Anpassungen, die mit hoher Arbeitslosigkeit einhergehen werden.

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