Crise financière : le cycle des soixante ans

La crise financière actuelle, provoquée par l’éclatement de la bulle de l’immobilier aux Etats-Unis, marque la fin d’une époque d’expansion du crédit basée sur le dollar comme monnaie de réserve internationale. Cette tempête financière est bien plus importante qu’aucune autre depuis la Seconde guerre mondiale.

Pour comprendre ce qui se passe, il nous faut un nouveau paradigme, qui est contenu dans la théorie de la réflexivité que j’ai exposée dans mon livre « L’alchimie de la finance » il y a 20 ans. Cette théorie démontre que les marchés financiers ne tendent pas à l’équilibre. Une perception biaisée et de fausses idées de la part des acteurs boursiers entraînent une incertitude et une imprévisibilité non seulement des cours des marchés, mais également des fondamentaux que ces cours sont censés représenter. Sans intervention, les marchés ont tendance à osciller entre des extrêmes d’euphorie et de désespoir.

Mais justement du fait de leur instabilité intrinsèque, les marchés financiers sont contrôlés, par des autorités chargées de placer des limites à ces extrêmes. Mais ces autorités sont elles-mêmes humaines et donc également sujettes à des perceptions biaisées et à des idées fausses. Et l’interaction entre les marchés financiers et les autorités de régulation financière est elle aussi réflexive.

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