六十年暴风雨

由美国住宅泡沫破灭所引发的当前金融危机也标志着以美元国际储备货币地位为基础的信用扩张时代彻底结束。这场暴风雨比第二次世界大战后的任何一次都更加猛烈。

为了理解目前的状况,我们需要一个全新的范例。这个范例就是反射理论,这一理论在20年前《金融炼金术》一书中由我本人首次提出。根据这项理论,金融市场本身并不会趋向于平静。市场参与者所抱有的偏见和误解不仅会导致市场价格的不稳定和不可预测,也会对上述价格所要反映的基本情况产生影响。如果完全任由市场自主决定,那么市场情绪将会走向快乐和绝望两极分化的境地。

事实上,由于潜在的不稳定性,金融市场并不能完全自主运行。它们要受到权力机构的监管,目的是将波动限制在一定范围之内。但权力机构同样也是由人组成,因此偏见和误解也无法避免。而金融市场和金融当局之间的互动同样也是一种反射。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To access our archive, please log in or register now and read two articles from our archive every month for free. For unlimited access to our archive, as well as to the unrivaled analysis of PS On Point, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/3bfJcY3/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.