L’ombra della depressione

BERKELEY – È capitato ben quattro volte nel secolo passato che una buona parte del mondo industriale cadesse in una lunga e profonda depressione caratterizzata da una forte disoccupazione: gli Stati Uniti negli anni 30, l’Europa occidentale industrializzata negli anni 30, di nuovo l’Europa occidentale negli anni 80 e il Giappone negli anni 90. Due di queste congiunture sfavorevoli – quella dell’Europa occidentale negli anni 80 e quella del Giappone negli anni 90 – hanno gettato un’enorme ombra sulle future performance economiche.

In entrambi i casi, se l’Europa o il Giappone ricadessero (o mai ricadranno) in un trend di pre-recessione di crescita economia, amp#160;ciò avverrebbe (o avverrà) tra decenni. In un terzo caso, l’Europa alla fine degli anni 30, non sappiamo cosa sarebbe accaduto se l’Europa non fosse diventata un campo di battaglia a seguito dell’invasione della Polonia per mano della Germania nazista.

In un solo esempio il trend di crescita di lungo periodo lasciò indisturbati: la produzione e l’occupazione americana dopo la Seconda Guerra mondiale non furono colpite in modo significativo dall’impatto macroeconomico della Grande Depressione. Se non ci fosse stata mobilitazione per la Seconda Guerra mondiale, probabilmente la Grande Depressione avrebbe gettato un’ombra sulla crescita economica americana dopo gli anni 40. La situazione era esattamente questa alla fine degli anni 30, con elevati livelli di disoccupazione strutturale e uno stock di capitali inferiore al trend, prima che la mobilitazione e le guerre in Europa e nel Pacifico iniziassero sul serio.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/katXDtF/it;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.