经济萧条的阴影

发自­伯克利——上个世纪,世界上大多数发达国家都曾先后4次陷入以长期失业率为特征的经济萧条之中:这些萧条分别爆发在1930年代的美国,1930年代实现工业化后的西欧,1980年代再次在西欧爆发,最后则是1990年代的日本。而其中较近的两次经济萧条都对此后的经济产生了漫长且深远的影响。

在这两次萧条中,欧洲或日本想要重新恢复到——或者事实上恢复到——衰退前的经济增长趋势的话,就得(或者说可能)花费数十年时间才能重回到这一水平。而要不是纳粹德国入侵波兰令欧洲沦为(二战)战场的话,我们也无法设想1930年末在欧洲爆发的那场萧条会引发何种后果。

而经济增长的长期趋势未被打断的例子只有一个:在二战后,美国的生产率和就业受到经济大萧条的明显影响。当然,如果不是投入人力参加二战,美国1940年后的经济增长很可能受到大萧条的严重冲击。结构性失业高企,资本储备低于常量,这就是1930年末美国动员参战和亚欧战事大规模爆发之前的真实情况,

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