Paul Lachine

Il fosso dei sette anni

PRINCETON – Esistono precedenti storici, non particolarmente allettanti, di inadempienze relative al debito sovrano ai margini dei paesi del sud dell’Europa. Spesso il dover gestire problemi apparentemente intrattabili richiede tempo, e risulta difficile essere pazienti, in particolar modo nei paesi democratici.

Il paragone più ovvio legato alle attuali difficoltà dell’Europa è con la crisi del debito degli anni ‘80 dell’America latina. Nell’agosto del 1982 il Messico subì un forte rischio di inadempienza seguito, subito dopo, da altri due importanti beneficiari di prestiti: Argentina e Brasile. Un contagio più vasto di tale contesto avrebbe portato al crollo dei sistemi bancari dei principali paesi industrializzati causando una crisi finanziaria simile alla Grande Depressione.

Sono poi seguiti sette anni di tempi supplementari. L’approccio iniziale fu quello di apportare dei miglioramenti nelle politiche dei paesi beneficiari di prestiti non solo attraverso l’aiuto delle istituzioni internazionali, ma anche con prestiti aggiuntivi da parte delle banche, sfidando apparentemente i canoni fondamentali del comportamento tendenzialmente assennato delle banche.

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