Paul Lachine

Sieben verflixte Jahre

PRINCETON – Es gibt historische Präzedenzfälle für zahlungsunfähige Staaten in der südlichen Peripherie Europas, aber diese können nicht unbedingt als Modell für die Gegenwart herhalten. Der Umgang mit scheinbar unlösbaren Problemen braucht oft Zeit. Und es ist schwierig, geduldig zu sein, besonders in Demokratien.

Die offensichtlichste Parallele zu Europas aktueller Misere ist die Schuldenkrise Lateinamerikas in den 80er Jahren des vergangenen Jahrhunderts. Im August 1982 stand Mexiko kurz vor dem Staatsbankrott, es folgten weitere große Schuldnerländer, insbesondere Argentinien und Brasilien. Hätten sich weitere Staaten angesteckt, wäre das Bankensystem aller großen Industrieländer zum Erliegen gekommen, und die Welt wäre in eine Krise vergleichbar mit der Weltwirtschaftskrise 1929 geraten.

Es folgte ein Spiel auf Zeit, das sieben Jahre dauerte. Der Ansatz war zunächst, Verbesserungen wirtschaftspolitischer Maßnahmen in den Schuldnerländern nicht nur mit der Hilfe von internationalen Organisationen zu verknüpfen, sondern auch mit zusätzlichen Darlehen der Banken – was gegen die elementarsten Prinzipien vernünftiger Bankenführung zu sprechen schien.

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