Paul Lachine

欧洲债务危机无法借鉴拉美方案

普林斯顿——面临主权债务违约的欧洲南部边缘国家可以在历史上找到前车之鉴,但乍一看都让人皱眉头。处理棘手的问题通常需要时间,而耐心往往是稀缺品——尤其在民主国家。

欧洲目前的苦恼,最显眼的先例是20世纪80年代的拉美债务危机。1982年8月,墨西哥扬言要违约,很快就有其他债务国跟风,特别是阿根廷和巴西。一旦爆发违约风潮,各大工业化国家的银行体系就会被拖垮,从而引发类似大萧条的金融危机。

接下来是拖时间,一拖七年。最初的对策是在各债务国改进政策的条件下,由国际机构提供帮助,并由有关银行追加贷款——看起来违背了银行理性行为的基本信条。

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