Paul Lachine

سبع سنين عجاف

برينستون ـ هناك سوابق تاريخية للعجز عن سداد الديون السيادية من جانب الدول الواقعة على المحيط الجنوبي لأوروبا، ولكن هذه السوابق ليست جذابة للوهلة الأولى. والتعامل مع المشاكل المستعصية يستغرق وقتاً بطبيعة الحال. ولكن التحلي بالصبر أمر صعب ـ وخاصة في ظل الأنظمة الديمقراطية.

كان الموقف الأكثر شبهاً بوضع أوروبا الحالي أزمة الديون التي ضربت أميركا اللاتينية في ثمانينيات القرن العشرين. ففي شهر أغسطس/آب 1982، هددت المكسيك بالتوقف عن سداد ديونها، ثم تبعتها بلدان مقترضة أخرى كبيرة، وأبرزها الأرجنتين والبرازيل. وكان انتشار عدوى التخلف عن سداد الديون ليؤدي إلى انهيار النظام المصرفي في كل البلدان الصناعية الكبرى، ودفع العالم بالكامل إلى أزمة مالية أشبه بأزمة الكساد الأعظم التي حدثت في ثلاثينيات القرن العشرين.

ثم أعقب ذلك وقت إضافي امتد سبعة أعوام. وكان النهج المبدئي آنذاك يتلخص في الربط بين تحسين السياسات في البلدان المقترضة، ليس فقط بمساعدة المؤسسات الدولية، بل وأيضاً بالاستعانة بقروض إضافية من البنوك ـ الأمر الذي بدا وكأنه تحد لأبسط قواعد السلوك المصرفي المعقول.

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