Paul Lachine

Второе «Большое сокращение»

КЕМБРИДЖ. Почему все по-прежнему именуют недавний финансовый кризис «Большой рецессией»? Термин, в конце концов, выбран на основе опасно ошибочного диагноза проблем, с которыми столкнулись Соединенные Штаты и другие страны, что ведет к плохим прогнозам и плохой политике.

Фраза «Большая рецессия» создает впечатление, что экономика следует за контурами типичной рецессии, только более серьезной – что-то вроде действительно сильной простуды. Именно поэтому всюду, пока продолжается этот спад деловой активности, предсказатели и аналитики, которые попытались провести аналогии с прошлыми послевоенными американскими рецессиями, понимали это ошибочно. Кроме того, слишком много разработчиков стратегий положились на веру в то, что, по большому счету, это всего лишь глубокий спад, который можно смягчить путем интенсивного выделения щедрой помощи в виде применяемых в таких случаях инструментов, таких как послабления налоговой политики или массированные пакеты финансовой помощи.

Но истинная проблема состоит в том, что мировая экономика ужасно перегружена заемными средствами и нет никакого быстрого спасения от этого, без схемы передачи богатства от кредиторов должникам через дефолты, финансовые репрессии или инфляцию.

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