El dilema del ahorrista

BRUSSELS – Las tasas de interés ahora están cerca de cero en todo el mundo desarrollado (Estados Unidos, Europa y Japón). Sin embargo, la economía global se está desacelerando, y los mercados financieros se fueron en picada durante el verano. Esto sugiere que el problema es más profundo que uno que se debiese a insuficientes estímulos monetarios.

El corazón de cualquier economía es el mecanismo por el cual los fondos se canalizan de los ahorristas a los inversionistas. En tiempos normales, los mercados de capital desempeñan esta función sin complicaciones; sin embargo, de vez en cuando, estos mercados se descomponen debido a grandes cambios repentinos en las percepciones sobre el riesgo de importantes tipos de activos.

Esto ocurrió en Estados Unidos cuando los inversionistas descubrieron que incluso los valores respaldados por activos y con una calificación AAA en realidad eran riesgosos. China experimentó una sorpresa similar cuando el gobierno de EE.UU. perdió su calificación AAA. Pero en ningún lugar el problema es más agudo que en Europa, o mejor dicho, en la eurozona, donde los ahorristas alemanes repentinamente están descubriendo riesgos en toda la periferia europea.

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