Comment gérer la crise syrienne

DENVER – Alors que diplomates russes et américains préparent la conférence pour la paix en Syrie, le Moyen-Orient est en proie à des convulsions sans pareil depuis le printemps arabe il y a deux ans. Les troubles en Syrie, qui semblaient de prime abord de même nature que ce à quoi on assistait ailleurs, se sont transformés en une guerre civile qui déborde les frontières du pays et affecte tous ses voisins. Du point de vue historique, c'est la crise syrienne et non le Printemps arabe qui restera probablement l'événement marquant de cette décade au Moyen-Orient, décisif quant à son avenir.

La dimension de la crise exige de la part de toutes les parties, et en particulier des USA, attention, sagesse et leadership. Gérer les forces historiques qui apparaissent au grand jour suppose de dépasser le débat vain sur quel type d'aide délivrer et à quel acteur du conflit.

Disparu, le point de vue simpliste d'un conflit opposant des partisans de la démocratie à un dictateur irascible - l'explication habituelle (mais pas tout à fait exacte) du Printemps arabe. Aspirants à la démocratie, combattants de la liberté, jihadistes, extrémistes sunnites et éléments d'Al Quaïda (tous soutenus par les pays arabes sunnites) sont du même coté de la ligne de bataille. De l'autre se trouvent le président Bachar Al-Assad et ses affidés, les groupes activistes chiites qui se battent pour protéger leur lien vital avec l'Iran, des minorités religieuses préoccupées par l'après Assad, et de manière plus inquiétante, l'Iran et son agent libanais, le Hezbollah.

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