应对叙利亚的崩溃

丹佛——在俄美外交官准备叙利亚和平会议的同时,继两年前阿拉伯之春后从未有过的动乱正在中东地区上演。起初看似不过又一场国内变革的叙利亚危机已经演化为一场扩散到边境以外的内战,进而影响到所有邻国的安全。从历史角度看,叙利亚危机而非阿拉伯之春最有可能成为近十年中东的开创性事件和今后的严峻考验。

处理如此规模的危机需要各方,尤其是美国的关注、智慧和领导艺术。控制危机所释放的历史能量需要的远远不只美国断断续续争论为哪方提供何种援助那样简单。

认为对抗双方是理想远大的民主派和牢骚满腹的独裁者这种对阿拉伯之春运动熟悉(但并不完全准确)而简单的理解早已不复存在。逊尼派阿拉伯国家和团体支持下的自诩民主派、自由战士、圣战者、逊尼派极端分子和“基地”组织人员现在处于战线的一端。总统巴沙尔·阿萨德及其亲信,为保护通往伊朗的生命线而战斗的什叶派武装团体、对后阿萨德时期生活忧心忡忡的宗教少数派人士,以及最难对付的伊朗及其在黎巴嫩的代理真主党则处在战线的另一端。

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