Russlands Wiederaufblühen

Russlands nationales Wiederaufblühen und sein Selbstbewusstsein unter Präsident Wladimir Putin sind nicht wirklich aus eigener Kraft entstanden, sondern sie spiegeln äußerst günstige internationale Bedingungen wider. Die Preise für Öl und Gas sind schwindelerregend hoch, die Vereinigten Staaten werden von den ernsthaften Problemen im Irak und Nahen Osten erdrückt, und der Westen ist sich nicht einig, wie er mit Russland umgehen soll.

Putins Regierung hat dieses günstige Umfeld eifrig ausgenutzt. Doch obwohl einige Schachzüge des Kremls klar und vernünftig erscheinen, können andere kaum rational oder vorausschauend genannt werden.

Beispielsweise ist Russlands Wunsch, Besitzanteile an den europäischen Gasverteilungsmärkten zu gewinnen, durchaus sinnvoll und angesichts der russischen Energievorkommen und Pipeline-Kapazität vollkommen legitim. Ebenso zielt Russlands Bestreben, seinen Einfluss in den energiereichen Ländern Zentralasiens auszuweiten, darauf ab, Russlands Position als Hauptenergieversorger zu festigen. Indem sich Russland als Großmacht außerhalb der westlichen Welt behauptete, hat es die Shanghai Organisation für Zusammenarbeit gestärkt, der China und die meisten zentralasiatischen Länder angehören. Tatsächlich misst Russland seinen Beziehungen zu China immer größere Bedeutung bei, was eine Art strategische Verlagerung in der Außenpolitik bedeutet, auch wenn noch nicht klar ist, wie nah Russland China kommen will.

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