El camino escabroso hacia la recuperación

NUEVA YORK – Hoy existe un consenso de que la recesión de Estados Unidos -que ya lleva un año- probablemente sea extensa y profunda, y que casi todos los países se verán afectados. Siempre pensé que la noción de que lo que sucediera en Estados Unidos estaría desacoplado del resto del mundo era un mito. Los acontecimientos lo están confirmando.

Afortunadamente, Estados Unidos por fin tiene un presidente que de alguna manera entiende la naturaleza y la gravedad del problema, y que se comprometió a implementar un fuerte programa de estímulo. Esto, junto con la acción concertada de los gobiernos en otras partes, hará que la depresión sea menos severa de lo que sería si no fuera así.

La Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos, que ayudó a crear los problemas mediante una combinación de liquidez excesiva y regulación laxa, intenta enmendar las cosas inundando la economía de liquidez  -una medida que, en el mejor de los casos, simplemente impidió que las cosas fueran peor de lo que son-. No sorprende que quienes ayudaron a crear los problemas y no vieron venir el desastre no hicieran un buen trabajo a la hora de resolverlo. Por ahora, ya está establecida la dinámica de la caída y las cosas se pondrán peor, no mejor.

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