咆哮的民主浪潮

巴黎——突尼斯起义是否真的掀起一股新的民主浪潮,能够在征服埃及后最终横扫专制的“阿拉伯特例”?继20世纪70年代的欧洲、20世纪80年代的美洲、20世纪90年代的中东欧爆发民主革命后,这次似乎轮到地中海国家接过革命的火炬。 欧盟南部边境的民主化进程关系到欧洲各国的切身利益。

突尼斯罢黜因·阿比丁·本·阿里标志着曾备受西方领袖赞誉的阿拉伯“稳定”模式一败涂地,这种模式的实质是独裁主义和高估的经济业绩。 无论最终结果如何,埃及掀起的愤怒和反抗浪潮都标志着阿拉伯民族主义独裁政权终结的开始。

与突尼斯截然不同的是,军队是埃及专制政权的支柱。 不过埃及数量庞大的军队(其中多数士兵为应征入伍)不大可能参与大规模暴力镇压,这在埃及称得上是史无前例。

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