Jim Meehan

El camino al crecimiento post-crisis

MILÁN – Pasaron unos 18 meses desde que estalló la crisis financiera, y 12 meses desde que el pánico comenzó a ceder -los precios de los activos se estabilizan y están empezando a subir-. Si bien la recuperación en los países avanzados sigue siendo frágil, los países en desarrollo parecen haber capeado el temporal. El crecimiento en China e India está regresando a los niveles previos a la crisis, el crecimiento de Brasil está aumentando tras una marcada caída y el comercio de los países en desarrollo está rebotando de sus niveles deprimidos.

Abundan las razones para esta notable resiliencia y sirven de guía tanto para los países avanzados como para aquellos en desarrollo. Cuando estalló la crisis, salió capital de los países en desarrollo para apuntalar los balances afectados en los países avanzados. El crédito se ajustó marcadamente. Pero las respuestas rápidas de los bancos centrales de los países en desarrollo, en colaboración con bancos domésticos relativamente saludables, impidieron un congelamiento grave del crédito.

Es más, las reservas acumuladas en la década anterior, en muchos casos, fueron utilizadas para compensar parte de la salida de capital. Los balances de los bancos habían sido fortalecidos después de la crisis financiera de 1997-1998, y no resultaron afectados por los activos securitizados sobrevaluados y los títulos derivados complejos que causaron gran parte del daño a las instituciones financieras de los países avanzados.

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