Jim Meehan

Cesta k pokrizovému růstu

MILÁN – Uběhlo asi 18 měsíců od doby, kdy udeřila finanční krize, a 12 měsíců od chvíle, kdy panika začala opadat a ceny aktiv se začaly stabilizovat a obracet. Oživení ve vyspělých zemích je sice stále křehké, ale rozvojové země už podle všeho bouří prošly. Růst v Číně a Indii šplhá zpět na předkrizové úrovně, brazilský růst se po prudkém propadu zvedá a obchodování rozvojových zemí se vzpamatovává z útlumu.

Příčin této pozoruhodné houževnatosti je mnoho a jak vyspělým, tak rozvojovým zemím nabízejí jistá vodítka. Když krize udeřila, kapitál odtékal z rozvojových zemí, aby podepřel narušené bilance ve vyspělých zemích. Prudce zpřísnily úvěry. Svižné reakce centrálních bank rozvojových zemí, ve spolupráci s relativně zdravými domácími bankami, však vážnému zadření úvěrů předešly.

K vyrovnání části kapitálového odlivu byly navíc v mnoha případech využity rezervy vybudované v předcházející dekádě. Bilance bank se po finanční krizi let 1997-1998 posilovaly a byly nezatížené nadhodnocenými sekuritizovanými aktivy a spletitými derivovanými cennými papíry, jež finančním ústavům ve vyspělých zemích způsobily značnou část škod.

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