Jim Meehan

危机后的复苏之路

米兰——

金融危机爆发至今已有大约18个月了。而12个月前,由于资产价格的稳定及升值,使得危机引起的恐慌渐渐退去。尽管发达国家的复苏仍然很脆弱,但发展中国家似乎已经熬过风头了。中国和印度的增长率正在向危机前的水平靠拢。在急剧下降后,巴西的增长率也在上升。此外,发展中国家的贸易也开始反弹。

这一引人注目反弹的原因众多。这些原因为发达国家和其他发展中国家的经济恢复提供了借鉴。危机爆发的时候,外资从发展中国家撤出,用以支撑发达国家衰退中的资产负债表。这导致信贷极度紧缩。但是发展中国家的央行与状态相对良好的国内银行联手做出快速反应,避免了严重的信贷冻结。

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