Matt Wuerker

通往财政危机之路

华盛顿特区——

华盛顿圈内人士之间流行一种时尚——民主党和共和党都不能免俗——就是举起手来,当众宣称:我们美国终将遭受大规模预算危机,特别是如今医疗保险费用攀升,增加了房利美和房地美持有权财政负担的情况下。但也是同一伙人通常笑着指出,他国投资人仍愿意借给美国大量的钱,保持较低的远期利率,并在可预见的将来允许美国拥有巨额赤字。

这一观点漏洞百出。它认为只要美元是世界首要的储备货币,并且美国为冒进的投资人提供最佳避难港,美国就能玩得转。按此逻辑,到2015年,政治家将不会增税,也几乎不用缩减开支,所以美国将还有约一万亿的预算赤字,其中大部分将以向外国人销售政府债券的方式融资。到2050年,无疑将出现财政问题——但即便如此,现在还是有足够的时间可以无视它。

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