La hoja de ruta incluye a Damasco

Los países poderosos saben que es peligroso que los vean flaquear, porque los enemigos se animan y las rodillas de los aliados empiezan a temblar. Una gran potencia sabe también que, si emprende una aventura militar sin fijarse objetivos alcanzables, puede tener graves problemas. Lo que es aplicable a las grandes potencias lo es doblemente para el asediado Israel, que no ha desmantelado el poder de Hizbolá en el Líbano, pero el fracaso en la guerra del Líbano puede aún brindar una oportunidad para la paz, si Israel es lo suficientemente audaz para aprovecharla.

El mundo tiene dos objetivos principales en la zona comprendida entre El Cairo y Teherán: mantener la paz en el gran Oriente Medio para que el petróleo fluya libremente por el golfo Pérsico; dirigir la disputa entre israelíes y palestinos hacia una solución que garantice la seguridad de Israel en sus fronteras internacionalmente reconocidas y al tiempo satisfaga las legítimas aspiraciones nacionales del pueblo palestino a tener un Estado propio. Las dos cuestiones han estado vinculadas durante mucho tiempo, pero ahora el vínculo principal es la Siria del Presidente Bashar al Asad.

Siria, aislada como está y con una necesidad apremiante de aliados, ha estado ayudando al Irán en su intento de alcanzar la hegemonía regional. Desde que la revolución del cedro del Líbano desalojó a Siria de ese país el año pasado, los sirios han intentado volver a abarcar el Líbano dentro de su esfera de influencia. Apoyan a Hizbolá –y ayudan al Irán a enviarle armas-, porque las tropas de choque del jeque Hasán Nasrallah contribuyen a la debilidad del gobierno del Líbano. Los sirios gustan también de presentarse como los últimos defensores árabes reales de la causa palestina.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable

    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.