La hoja de ruta incluye a Damasco

Los países poderosos saben que es peligroso que los vean flaquear, porque los enemigos se animan y las rodillas de los aliados empiezan a temblar. Una gran potencia sabe también que, si emprende una aventura militar sin fijarse objetivos alcanzables, puede tener graves problemas. Lo que es aplicable a las grandes potencias lo es doblemente para el asediado Israel, que no ha desmantelado el poder de Hizbolá en el Líbano, pero el fracaso en la guerra del Líbano puede aún brindar una oportunidad para la paz, si Israel es lo suficientemente audaz para aprovecharla.

El mundo tiene dos objetivos principales en la zona comprendida entre El Cairo y Teherán: mantener la paz en el gran Oriente Medio para que el petróleo fluya libremente por el golfo Pérsico; dirigir la disputa entre israelíes y palestinos hacia una solución que garantice la seguridad de Israel en sus fronteras internacionalmente reconocidas y al tiempo satisfaga las legítimas aspiraciones nacionales del pueblo palestino a tener un Estado propio. Las dos cuestiones han estado vinculadas durante mucho tiempo, pero ahora el vínculo principal es la Siria del Presidente Bashar al Asad.

Siria, aislada como está y con una necesidad apremiante de aliados, ha estado ayudando al Irán en su intento de alcanzar la hegemonía regional. Desde que la revolución del cedro del Líbano desalojó a Siria de ese país el año pasado, los sirios han intentado volver a abarcar el Líbano dentro de su esfera de influencia. Apoyan a Hizbolá –y ayudan al Irán a enviarle armas-, porque las tropas de choque del jeque Hasán Nasrallah contribuyen a la debilidad del gobierno del Líbano. Los sirios gustan también de presentarse como los últimos defensores árabes reales de la causa palestina.

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