和平路线图包括大马士革

强国们知道表现出退缩是危险的,因为这会使敌人振奋而令盟友畏缩。一个强国还知道如果它发动一场没有既定目标的军事冒险,就可能会陷入大麻烦之中。这些大国们了然于胸的道理对于陷入重围的以色列更是适用。它未能解除真主党在黎巴嫩的有生力量。但黎巴嫩战争的失败却可能为和平提供了一个机会,就看以色列是否有勇气把握住它。

国际社会在开罗和德黑兰之间的地区有两个首要的目标:维持更广泛的中东地区的和平以便让石油能够通过波斯湾畅流无阻;朝和解的方向引导巴以冲突从而确保以色列在国际承认的边界内的安全,同时也满足巴勒斯坦人民建立自己国家的合法心愿。这两个问题长期以来就是彼此关联的,而现在的关键环节则是巴萨尔·阿萨德总统领导下的叙利亚。

在备受孤立而急需盟友的情况下,叙利亚一直在帮助伊朗寻求地区霸权。自从黎巴嫩在去年的“雪松革命”中将叙利亚驱逐以来,叙利亚人就一直企图将其重新纳入到自己的势力范围。他们支持真主党—并帮助伊朗运送武器—因为纳斯鲁拉的突击部队制约着贝鲁特的政府。叙利亚人还喜欢将自己标榜为巴勒斯坦事业在阿拉伯世界的最后一个真正捍卫者。

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