和平路线图包括大马士革

强国们知道表现出退缩是危险的,因为这会使敌人振奋而令盟友畏缩。一个强国还知道如果它发动一场没有既定目标的军事冒险,就可能会陷入大麻烦之中。这些大国们了然于胸的道理对于陷入重围的以色列更是适用。它未能解除真主党在黎巴嫩的有生力量。但黎巴嫩战争的失败却可能为和平提供了一个机会,就看以色列是否有勇气把握住它。

国际社会在开罗和德黑兰之间的地区有两个首要的目标:维持更广泛的中东地区的和平以便让石油能够通过波斯湾畅流无阻;朝和解的方向引导巴以冲突从而确保以色列在国际承认的边界内的安全,同时也满足巴勒斯坦人民建立自己国家的合法心愿。这两个问题长期以来就是彼此关联的,而现在的关键环节则是巴萨尔·阿萨德总统领导下的叙利亚。

在备受孤立而急需盟友的情况下,叙利亚一直在帮助伊朗寻求地区霸权。自从黎巴嫩在去年的“雪松革命”中将叙利亚驱逐以来,叙利亚人就一直企图将其重新纳入到自己的势力范围。他们支持真主党—并帮助伊朗运送武器—因为纳斯鲁拉的突击部队制约着贝鲁特的政府。叙利亚人还喜欢将自己标榜为巴勒斯坦事业在阿拉伯世界的最后一个真正捍卫者。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/U4kqE99/zh;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now